The Unthinkable

NorthmanTrader

unthinkableI can’t project the future of the economy, nor do I pretend that I can. But there are some that do and they make it their profession. Some of these are economists, some of them are Fed governors. And I freely concede that projecting the economy is probably an imprecise science as it is highly complex and subject to unexpected influences. But I must confess I know of no profession where one can be off by over 50% or more on a regular basis and still be given credibility of any sort.

The latest example came with Friday’s dismal NFP report:

The sputtering U.S. economy created just 126,000 jobs in March as bad weather, weak consumer spending and flailing corporate profits resulted in the worst report since December 2013. Economists expected nonfarm payrolls to rise 245,000 in March.

Now one could of course dismiss this report as a one off bad…

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